Methodology

This page explains the general scientific principles, data sources, and limitations underlying Pregnalyze tools. Individual calculators and charts may apply different models, inputs, and assumptions depending on their purpose.

Obstetrics & gynecology (2008)

Tong et al. - First-trimester baseline risk study

“Miscarriage risk for asymptomatic women after a normal first-trimester prenatal visit”

BMJ (2019)

Magnus et al. - Over 500,000 pregnancies studied

“Role of maternal age and pregnancy history in risk of miscarriage: prospective register-based study”

Human Reproduction Update (2020)

Nadia A. du Fossé et al. - Paternal age meta-analysis

“Advanced paternal age is associated with an increased risk of spontaneous miscarriage: a systematic review and meta-analysis”

American Journal of Obstetrics & Gynecology (2021)

Sundermann et al. - Lifestyle and early pregnancy

“Week-by-week alcohol consumption in early pregnancy and spontaneous abortion risk: a prospective cohort study”

1. Evidence-Based Modeling Framework

Pregnalyze tools are built using published scientific research, including large population studies, systematic reviews, meta-analyses, and established clinical guidelines from obstetrics, gynecology, reproductive medicine, epidemiology, and biostatistics.

All results are derived from peer-reviewed medical literature and validated statistical methods. Pregnalyze does not rely on intuition, opinions, or generative artificial intelligence to produce estimates.

Types of Models Used Across Pregnalyze Tools

Pregnalyze includes multiple tools that serve different analytical purposes. As a result, different statistical approaches are used across the platform:

  • Probability-based models estimate population-level likelihoods based on known clinical factors (for example, miscarriage risk or conception probability).
  • Trend analysis models evaluate changes in measured values over time and compare them with typical clinical patterns (for example, hCG trends).
  • Guideline-based calculators apply established medical recommendations to provide reference ranges or estimates (for example, pregnancy weight gain or due date calculations).
  • Descriptive population charts visualize how outcomes typically change over time in large cohorts (for example, miscarriage risk by gestational week).

Each calculator or chart applies only the modeling approach relevant to its specific purpose.

2. Inputs, Modifiers, and Assumptions

Pregnalyze tools use information entered by users to select appropriate reference data from the scientific literature. Depending on the tool, inputs may be used to:

  • Select population-based baseline probabilities
  • Apply statistical modifiers reported in clinical studies
  • Compare values against reference curves or guideline thresholds

Not all factors influencing pregnancy outcomes can be included. Models are necessarily simplified representations of complex biological processes and generally assume that individual variables act independently unless specified otherwise in the source literature.

3. What Pregnalyze Tools Do Not Do

To ensure clarity and safety:

  • ❌ Pregnalyze does not provide medical advice or diagnosis
  • ❌ Pregnalyze does not replace a doctor, midwife, ultrasound, or laboratory testing
  • ❌ Pregnalyze does not use artificial intelligence or machine-learning prediction models
  • ❌ Pregnalyze does not access personal medical records
  • ❌ Pregnalyze cannot predict individual outcomes or determine whether a pregnancy will continue or end

Pregnalyze provides educational, research-based statistical information only.

4. Statistical Limitations

All Pregnalyze tools are based on population-level data. Results represent statistical estimates rather than individual predictions.

Limitations include incomplete data coverage, uncertainty within published studies, simplified modeling assumptions, and evolving scientific evidence. Where applicable, confidence ranges or uncertainty intervals may be shown, but no result can guarantee an outcome.

5. Use in Medical Context

Pregnalyze tools are intended to support understanding and informed discussion with qualified healthcare professionals. They should never delay or replace professional medical care.

6. Scientific Sources

Pregnalyze draws from peer-reviewed studies published in leading medical journals, including BMJ, The Lancet, Obstetrics & Gynecology, Human Reproduction, and The New England Journal of Medicine.

The sources listed below represent the primary research base used across Pregnalyze tools. These studies inform baseline probabilities, statistical modifiers, reference curves, and clinical assumptions applied throughout the platform.

Not all studies apply to every calculator or chart. Each tool uses a relevant subset of sources depending on its design and inputs.